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After breaching fresh 10 week highs on Thursday, the Pound took a hit on two fronts on Friday. Firstly, harsh words from the Maltese Prime Minister about the upcoming negotiations with the EU were enough to upset a clearly hypersensitive market at the moment.
Sterling recouped some of those losses when it was quite clear it was an overreaction to those comments. Though you can’t blame investors for jumping the gun…the last time a few leaders from the Eurozone made comments like that it was the beginning of October and it caused a flash crash on the Pound, with GBP/EUR falling 4 cents as an example.
Following this, the roller coaster continued for buying Euro and Dollar rates, and the reasoning points to worrying expectations for exchange rates in the latter part of next month.
Profit taking and protective trading will likely see the Pound undercut quite heavily as markets relieve themselves of riskier currencies ahead of the Christmas period when trading winds down. Essentially many traders are not at their desks so will likely buy up ‘safe haven’ currencies such as the Swiss Franc and US Dollar to avoid coming back to work in January to see hard earned profits lost.
The expected mass selloff of Sterling is why companies and individuals are already planning to protect themselves during this period.
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Currency Online Group foreign exchange market update
Some of the UK’s largest Banks including Lloyds and Barclays
have now forecast a rally in the Pound through 2017, they expect the recently
oversold currency to retrace and improve against a basket of currencies.
The British pound has slightly edged off of recent lows
against the Euro and US Dollar, aided by UK services, PMI data and some large
Forex trading house taking profit. As we expected here at Currency Online
Group, the Great British Pound is set to avoid parity versus the EURO. Much
speculation has been cast due to the UK’s Brexit decision however, it is clear
from yesterdays strong UK construction data that the pound is hugely
undervalued and we fully expect it to strengthen in 2017.
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The Chinese stock market
crash in the
summer of 2015 also raised concerns about the slowdown in the country’s
economy, but it remains a fast-growing market. With Chinese visitors expected to
double spending from Chinese visitors to £1bn by 2020, said they were already
among the highest spenders – ringing up £2,688 a head. Chinese visitors already
account for almost a quarter of tourist spending in the UK.
Higher incomes have allowed millions of Chinese to start taking holidays
outside their country. The World Tourism Organisation estimates 100 million
Chinese will leave their country on holiday this year. While Asian countries
make up the top five destinations, France, Italy Switzerland and Germany are
also in the top 10.